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Sagot :
Answer:
The probability that Jones is lying is 6/7
Step-by-step explanation:
First we will list out 2 different cases when the outcome is a lie
1.probability that Jones tells lies is = 0.6 and probability that dalgiliesh analyses it correctly is 0.8
So the probability that dagliesh correctly analyses that he is telling lies is 0.8*0.6=0.48
2.Probability that Jones tells truth is 0.4 and if dagliesh analyses it incorrectly (which has a probability of 0.2) the outcome(as analysed by dagiliesh) is a lie
So probability that dagliesh analyses Jones truth as a lie is 0.2*.0.4=0.08
Total probability of outcome being a lie is 0.48+0.08=0.56
But we need the probability of Jones actually saying a lie which is nothing but 0.48/0.56= 6/7
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