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Nafeli is taking a multiple-choice exam with 10 questions and 3 choices per question. For eachquestion, there are two equally likely possibilities, independent of other questions. In the firstpossibility, she knows the answer, in which case she answers the question correctly. In the secondpossibility, she guesses the answer with probability of success 1/3.1. Given that Nafeli answered correctly the first question, what is the probability that she knewthe answer to that question

Sagot :

Answer:

0.75 = 75% probability that she knewthe answer to that question

Step-by-step explanation:

Conditional Probability

We use the conditional probability formula to solve this question. It is

[tex]P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}[/tex]

In which

P(B|A) is the probability of event B happening, given that A happened.

[tex]P(A \cap B)[/tex] is the probability of both A and B happening.

P(A) is the probability of A happening.

In this question:

Event A: Answered correctly.

Event B: Knew the answer.

Probability of answering correctly:

0.5(knows the answer)

1/3 of 1 - 0.5 = 0.5(didn't know but guessed correctly). So

[tex]P(A) = 0.5 + 0.5\frac{1}{3} = 0.6667[/tex]

Probability of answering correctly and knowing the answer:

0.5, which means that [tex]P(A \cap B) = 0.5[/tex].

What is the probability that she knew the answer to that question?

[tex]P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.5}{0.6667} = 0.75[/tex]

0.75 = 75% probability that she knewthe answer to that question