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Sagot :
Answer:
0.5015 = 50.15% probability that it came from manufacturer A.
Step-by-step explanation:
Conditional Probability
We use the conditional probability formula to solve this question. It is
[tex]P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}[/tex]
In which
P(B|A) is the probability of event B happening, given that A happened.
[tex]P(A \cap B)[/tex] is the probability of both A and B happening.
P(A) is the probability of A happening.
In this question:
Event A: Defective
Event B: From manufacturer A.
Probability a unit is defective:
2% of 43%(from manufacturer A)
1.5% of 57%(from manufacturer B). So
[tex]P(A) = 0.02*0.43 + 0.015*0.57 = 0.01715[/tex]
Probability a unit is defective and from manufacturer A:
2% of 43%. So
[tex]P(A \cap B) = 0.02*0.43 = 0.0086[/tex]
What is the probability that it came from manufacturer A?
[tex]P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.0086}{0.01715} = 0.5015[/tex]
0.5015 = 50.15% probability that it came from manufacturer A.
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