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In order to win a prize, Heather randomly draws two balls from a basket of 40. There are 25 blue balls, and the rest are green balls. Of the blue balls, 12% are winning balls. Of the green balls, 20% are winning balls. Calculate the expected number of winning balls that Heather draws.

Sagot :

Answer:

The expected number of winning balls that Heather draws is 0.3.

Step-by-step explanation:

The balls are chosen without replacement, which means that the hypergeometric distribution is used to solve this question.

Hypergeometric distribution:

The probability of x successes is given by the following formula:

[tex]P(X = x) = h(x,N,n,k) = \frac{C_{k,x}*C_{N-k,n-x}}{C_{N,n}}[/tex]

In which:

x is the number of successes.

N is the size of the population.

n is the size of the sample.

k is the total number of desired outcomes.

Combinations formula:

[tex]C_{n,x}[/tex] is the number of different combinations of x objects from a set of n elements, given by the following formula.

[tex]C_{n,x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!}[/tex]

Expected value of the hypergeometric distribution:

The expected value is given by:

[tex]E(X) = \frac{nk}{N}[/tex]

Expected number of blue and green balls:

40 balls, which means that [tex]N = 40[/tex]

2 are chosen, which means that [tex]n = 2[/tex]

25 are blue, which means that [tex]k = 25[/tex]

So

[tex]E(X) = \frac{nk}{N} = \frac{25(2)}{40} = 1.25[/tex]

1.25 balls are expected to be blue and 2 - 1.25 = 0.75 green.

Of the blue balls, 12% are winning.

Of the green balls, 20% are winning.

Calculate the expected number of winning balls that Heather draws.

[tex]E_w = 1.25*0.12 + 0.75*0.2 = 0.3[/tex]

The expected number of winning balls that Heather draws is 0.3.

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