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If electricity power failures occur according to a Poisson distribution with an average of 3 failures every twenty weeks, calculate the probability that there will not be more than one failure during a particular week.

Sagot :

Answer:

0.9898 = 98.98% probability that there will not be more than one failure during a particular week.

Step-by-step explanation:

In a Poisson distribution, the probability that X represents the number of successes of a random variable is given by the following formula:

[tex]P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\mu}*\mu^{x}}{(x)!}[/tex]

In which

x is the number of sucesses

e = 2.71828 is the Euler number

[tex]\mu[/tex] is the mean in the given interval.

3 failures every twenty weeks

This means that for 1 week, [tex]\mu = \frac{3}{20} = 0.15[/tex]

Calculate the probability that there will not be more than one failure during a particular week.

Probability of at most one failure, so:

[tex]P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)[/tex]

Then

[tex]P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\mu}*\mu^{x}}{(x)!}[/tex]

[tex]P(X = 0) = \frac{e^{-0.15}*0.15^{0}}{(0)!} = 0.8607[/tex]

[tex]P(X = 1) = \frac{e^{-0.15}*0.15^{1}}{(1)!} = 0.1291[/tex]

Then

[tex]P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) = 0.8607 + 0.1291 = 0.9898[/tex]

0.9898 = 98.98% probability that there will not be more than one failure during a particular week.