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On weekend nights, a large urban hospital has an average of 4.8 emergency arrivals per hour. Let X be the number of arrivals per hour on a weekend night at this hospital. Assume that successive arrivals are random and independent. What is the probability P(X < 3)?

Sagot :

Answer:

P(X < 3) = 0.14254

Step-by-step explanation:

We have only the mean, which means that the Poisson distribution is used to solve this question.

Poisson distribution:

In a Poisson distribution, the probability that X represents the number of successes of a random variable is given by the following formula:

[tex]P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\mu}*\mu^{x}}{(x)!}[/tex]

In which

x is the number of sucesses

e = 2.71828 is the Euler number

[tex]\mu[/tex] is the mean in the given interval.

On weekend nights, a large urban hospital has an average of 4.8 emergency arrivals per hour.

This means that [tex]\mu = 4.8[/tex]

What is the probability P(X < 3)?

[tex]P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)[/tex]

So

[tex]P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\mu}*\mu^{x}}{(x)!}[/tex]

[tex]P(X = 0) = \frac{e^{-4.8}*4.8^{0}}{(0)!} = 0.00823[/tex]

[tex]P(X = 1) = \frac{e^{-4.8}*4.8^{1}}{(1)!} = 0.03950[/tex]

[tex]P(X = 2) = \frac{e^{-4.8}*4.8^{2}}{(2)!} = 0.09481[/tex]

So

[tex]P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) = 0.00823 + 0.03950 + 0.09481 = 0.14254[/tex]

P(X < 3) = 0.14254