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Economic growth can be caused by random fluctuations, seasonal fluctuations, changes in the business cycle, and long-term structural causes. Policy can influence the latter two.
Business cycles refer to the regular cyclical pattern of economic boom (expansions) and bust (recessions). Recessions are characterized by falling output and employment; at the opposite end of the spectrum is an “overheating” economy, characterized by unsustainably rapid economic growth and rising inflation. Capital investment spending is the most cyclical component of economic output, whereas consumption is one of the least cyclical. Government can temper booms and busts through the use of monetary and fiscal policy. Monetary policy refers to changes in overnight interest rates by the Federal Reserve. When the Fed wishes to stimulate economic activity, it reduces interest rates; to curb economic activity, it raises rates. Fiscal policy refers to changes in the federal budget deficit. An increasing deficit stimulates economic activity, whereas a decreasing deficit curbs it. By their nature, policy changes to influence the business cycle affect the economy only temporarily because booms and busts are transient. In recent decades, expansions have become longer and recessions shallower, perhaps because of improved stabilization policy, or perhaps because of good luck.
Long-term growth receives less attention from policymakers than cyclical growth. Yet in a broader view of history, long-term growth is the more important of the two because it is the key to raising living standards. Long-term growth is caused by increases in labor, capital, and productivity. Policy changes in the areas of education, taxation, competition, basic research, and infrastructure can influence the economy’s long-term growth rate, but only at the margins. Long-term growth has altered very little over most of U.S. history despite a broad array of policy changes. That fact is less surprising when one considers that the main contributor to long-term growth is technological progress, over which the government has little direct influence. In recent years, long-term growth has accelerated modestly because of higher productivity growth, driven mainly by what is popularly referred to as the “information technology (IT) revolution.” Although the government had little direct influence over the IT revolution, it provided an environment in which those technological changes were allowed to thrive, which likely explains why many other economies did not experience a similar productivity acceleration.
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