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Consider the following scenario analysis:



Rate of Return
Scenario Probability Stocks Bonds
Recession 0.30 −6 % 15 %
Normal economy 0.60 18 % 8 %
Boom 0.10 26 % 5 %


a. Is it reasonable to assume that Treasury bonds will provide higher returns in recessions than in booms?



multiple choice
No
Yes


b. Calculate the expected rate of return and standard deviation for each investment. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter your answers as a percent rounded to 1 decimal place.)







c. Which investment would you prefer?

Sagot :

Parrain

Based on the scenario analysis on stocks and bonds, we know the following:

  • Treasury bonds will provide a higher return in a recession than in a boom.
  • The expected return of Bonds is 9.8% and that of stocks is 11.6%.
  • The standard deviation of Bonds is 9.24% and that of stock is 11.76%.

What does the scenario analysis on Bonds and Stocks show?

In a recession, Bond returns will be 15%. This is much higher than Bond returns in a boom of only 5%.

The expected return on bonds will be:

= ∑(Probability of Scenario x Returns in scenario)

= (0.30 x 15%) + (0.60 x 8%) + (0.10 x 5%)

= 9.8%

The expected return on stocks will be:

= (0.30 x -6%) + (0.60 x 18%) + (0.10 x 26%)

= 11.6%

Using a spreadsheet, you can input the expected returns of the stocks and the bonds to find the standard deviation to be 9.24% and 11.76%, respectively.

Find out more on stock expected returns at https://brainly.com/question/18724022.

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