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Bosco Corp. is considering a new product that would require an investment of ₦10 million now, at t = 0. If the new product is well received, then the project would produce after-tax cash flows of ₦5 million at the end of each of the next 3 years (t = 1, 2, 3), but if the market did not like the product, then the cash flows would be only ₦2 million per year. There is a 50% probability that the market will be good. The firm could delay the project for a year while it conducts a test to determine if demand is likely to be strong or weak. The project's cost and expected annual cash flows would be the same whether the project is delayed or not. The project's WACC is 10.0%. Calculate the value (in thousands) of the project before and after considering the investment timing option.

Sagot :

The project's value before the timing option is ₦3,268 (in thousands), while the project's value after the timing option is ₦8,954 (in thousands).

How do we calculate the value of a project?

1. The value (in thousands) of the project before considering the investment timing option can be calculated as follows:

Using the formula for calculating the present value of an ordinary annuity, the present values of cash flows can be calculated as follows:

PV = P * ((1 - (1 / (1 + r))^n) / r) …………………………………. (1)

Where;

PV = Present value cash flows

P = Annual cash flows

r = WACC = 10.0%, or 0.10

n = number of years = 5

Substitute the values into equation (1), we have:

PV when the market is good =  ₦5,000 * ((1 - (1 / (1 + 0.10))^5) / 0.10) = ₦18,954

PV when the market is bad =  ₦2,000 * ((1 - (1 / (1 + 0.10))^5) / 0.10) = ₦7,582

Project's value before timing option = (Probability the market will be good  * (₦18,954 - ₦10,000)) + (Probability the market will be bad * (₦7,582 - ₦10,000)) = (50% * (₦18,954 - ₦10,000)) + (50% * ((₦7,582 - ₦10,000)) = ₦3,268 (in thousands)

2. The value (in thousands) of the project after considering the investment timing option can be calculated as follows:

Since timing is considered, it means the firm will only invest in the project if the market is strong and the annual cash flow will be ₦5 million without any probability.

Therefore, we have:

Project's value after timing option = ₦18,954 - ₦10,000 = ₦8,954 (in thousands)

3. In addition, the value of option wait can be calculated as follows:

Value of option wait = Project's value after timing option - Project's value before timing option = ₦8,954 - ₦3,268 = ₦5,686 (in thousands)

Learn more about the value of option wait here: https://brainly.com/question/18125375.

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