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estimating the probability of illness due to swimming in recreational water with a mixture of human- and gull-associated microbial source tracking markers

Sagot :

Numerous sources of feces frequently pollute beaches. Raw and processed wastewater from humans and wildlife, such seagulls, are examples of animal sources.

Different  sources of pollution are expected to pose different health risks to swimmers. Genetic Microbial Source Tracking (MST) markers can be used to detect bacteria  associated with various animal sources, but the health risks associated with admixture of MST markers are unknown. In this study, we show how to predict these health risks using markers associated with humans and seagulls as examples. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is performed using MST markers as indicators. We find that the risks associated with exposure to  specific concentrations of human-associated MST  (HF) markers are greater when the HF sources are raw and untreated wastewater. We also found a risk-based threshold for HF from untreated beach wastewater to fall below his predicted disease risk of 3 per 100 swimmers,  a function of seagull-associated MST marker (CAT) concentration. It also provides values.

However, using a combination of human- and gull-associated microbial source tracking markers to calculate the likelihood of sickness brought on by swimming in recreational water.

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