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Nathaniel (Nate) Silver is a popular statistician and writer. He first gained recognition for developing a system to forecast the performance of Major League Baseball players. More recently he gained further accolades by correctly predicting the winner of the 2012 presidential elections in all 50 states. The methods he used were more numerous and sophisticated than this demonstration can present. However, this demonstrative example gives some insight as to how he was able to predict a winner when everyone else was saying Too Close to Call. The data in this demonstration is contrived though it represents the idea behind a relatively simple concept called aggregate polling.1. Individual Polls: Suppose there were three separate pre-election polls by three different polling firms in a given swing state.
