campbell's surge-and-decline theory asserts the president's party in congress consistently loses seats at midterm time. true false

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04-11-2022
Social Studies

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campbell's surge-and-decline theory asserts the president's party in congress consistently loses seats at midterm time. true false

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qwstar qwstar · Answer 1 · 2022-11-08T16:33:03-05:00

Campbell's surge-and-decline theory suggests that the president's party in Congress consistently loses seats at midterm time is a true statement.

To explain these trends, Campbell offered the surge-and-decline theory. 1960's "Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change" by Angus Campbell 397–418 in Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 24, Number 3. With the exception of 1934, Campbell observed that the president's party has consistently lost seats in Congress during midterm elections since the Civil War. He hypothesized that the cause was an increase of political stimulation during presidential elections, which helps to increase turnout and attract voters who are typically less engaged in politics. According to Campbell, these voters frequently support the party in power.

Midterm elections, however, have the opposite impact. Because less-interested voters remain home, they are less exciting and have lower turnout.

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Campbell's surge-and-decline theory suggests that the president's party in Congress consistently loses seats at midterm time, because the excited voters who came out to support the president two years before now vote in smaller numbers, whereas core voters who oppose the president show up as they always do.

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