Chief engineer of the company must decide whether to mount a production line that uses the latest technology. if the new line run smoothly, the company will gain 200 million usd. if it refuses, the company could lose 150 million usd. according to information from chief engineer a 60% chance that the new production line will refuse. you can create an experimental machine, and then decide whether to mount a production line. the experiment will cost 4 million usd . the chief engineer believes that there is a 50% chance that the experimental machine will work. if the experimental machine works, then 90% chance for having assembled production line will also work. if the experimental setup does not work, only 20% chance for that production line work. should we build an experimental machine? should we mount production line? what is the expected value estimation for the best solution?

Question

07-11-2022
Advanced Placement (AP)

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Chief engineer of the company must decide whether to mount a production line that uses the latest technology. if the new line run smoothly, the company will gain 200 million usd. if it refuses, the company could lose 150 million usd. according to information from chief engineer a 60% chance that the new production line will refuse. you can create an experimental machine, and then decide whether to mount a production line. the experiment will cost 4 million usd . the chief engineer believes that there is a 50% chance that the experimental machine will work. if the experimental machine works, then 90% chance for having assembled production line will also work. if the experimental setup does not work, only 20% chance for that production line work. should we build an experimental machine? should we mount production line? what is the expected value estimation for the best solution?

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