Construct a time-series graph of the sales data for HeathCo’s line of skiwear (see
data in c5p11). Does there appear to be a seasonal pattern in the sales data? Explain
why you think the results are as you have found. (c5p11)
c5p11
Period
Sales
Mar-07
72962
Jun-07
81921
Sep-07
97729
Dec-07
142161
Mar-08
145592
Jun-08
117129
Sep-08
114159
Dec-08
151402
Mar-09
153907
Jun-09
100144
Sep-09
123242
Dec-09
128497
Mar-10
176076
Jun-10
180440
Sep-10
162665
Dec-10
220818
Mar-11
202415
Jun-11
211780
Sep-11
163710
Dec-11
200135
Mar-12
174200
Jun-12
182556
Sep-12
198990
Dec-12
243700
Mar-13
253142
Jun-13
218755
Sep-13
225422
Dec-13
253653
Mar-14
257156
Jun-14
202568
Sep-14
224482
Dec-14
229879
Mar-15
289321
Jun-15
266095
Sep-15
262938
Dec-15
322052
Mar-16
313769
Jun-16
315011
Sep-16
264939
Dec-16
301479
April through September. To test this hypothesis, begin by adding two dummy variablesb. It seems logical that skiwear would sell better from October through March than from
to the data: a dummy variable Q1 = 1 for each first quarter (January, February,
March) and Q1 = 0 otherwise; and a dummy variable Q4 = 1 for each fourth quarter
(October, November, December) and Q4 = 0 otherwise. Once the dummy variables
have been entered into your data set, estimate the following trend model:
SALES b0 + b1(TIME) + b2Q1 + b3Q4
Evaluate these results by answering the following:
∙∙ Do the signs make sense? Why or why not?
∙∙ Are the coefficients statistically different from zero at a 95 percent confidence level
(one-tailed test)?
∙∙ What percentage of the variation in SALES is explained by this model?
c. Use this model to make a forecast of SALES (SF2) for the four quarters of 2017 and
calculate the MAPE for the forecast period.
Period SALES ($000) SF2
2017Q1 334,271
2017Q2 328,982
2017Q3 317,921
2017Q4 350,118
d. Prepare a time-series plot of SALES (for 2007Q1 through 2016Q4) along with SF2
(for 2007Q1 through 2017Q4) to illustrate how SALES and SF2 compare.