Document 2
In this excerpt, William H. McNeill discusses the interpretation of historical evidence to explain how the
plague was spread. He suggests that available evidence makes it unlikely that the plague was found in China
before 1331.
…By contrast, after 1331, and more particularly after 1353, China entered upon a disastrous
period of its history. Plague coincided with civil war as a native Chinese reaction against the
Mongol domination gathered headway, climaxing in the overthrow of the alien rulers and the
establishment of a new Ming Dynasty in 1368. The combination of war and pestilence [disease]
wreaked havoc on China’s population. The best estimates show a decrease from 123 million [in]
about 1200 (before the Mongol invasions began) to a mere 65 million in 1393, a generation after
the final expulsion of the Mongols from China. Even Mongol ferocity cannot account for such a
drastic decrease. Disease assuredly played a big part in cutting Chinese numbers in half; and
bubonic plague, recurring after its initial ravages at relatively frequent intervals, just as in
Europe, is by all odds the most likely candidate for such a role.…
Source: William H. McNeill, Plagues and Peoples, Quality Paperback Book Club (adapted)
2 According to William H. McNeill, what was one way the plague affected China after 1331?