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Stock index spot price is $1,000. Current zero-coupon interest rate is 2.3%. What is the potential arbitrage profit if the 1 year futures contract on the index is priced at $1,025?

Sagot :

Answer:

Hey Ruben! No worries friend, for I will explain this to you:



First, we must calculate the theoretical futures price using the formula for the cost of carry, which is given by:

F = S * e^(r * t)

where:

F is the theoretical futures price

S is the spot price ($1,000)

e is the base of the natural logarithm (approximately 2.71828)

r is the risk-free interest rate (2.3% or 0.023)

t is the time to maturity (1 year)

Substituting the values, we get:

F = 1000 * e^(0.023 * 1)

Next, we need to calculate e^(0.023). Using the ancient method of logarithmic expansion, we approximate e^(0.023) as follows:

e^(0.023) ≈ 1 + 0.023 + (0.023^2)/2 + (0.023^3)/6

Calculating each term, we get:

0.023^2 = 0.000529

0.023^3 = 0.000012167

Therefore:

e^(0.023) ≈ 1 + 0.023 + 0.0002645 + 0.000002027833 ≈ 1.023266527833

Now, we multiply this by the spot price:

F = 1000 * 1.023266527833 ≈ 1023.27

The theoretical futures price is approximately $1,023.27. However, the actual futures price is $1,025. To find the potential arbitrage profit, we need to compare the actual futures price with the theoretical futures price.

The potential arbitrage profit can be calculated as:

Arbitrage Profit = Actual Futures Price - Theoretical Futures Price

Substituting the values, we get:

Arbitrage Profit = 1025 - 1023.27 = 1.73

Therefore, the potential arbitrage profit is 1.73$